"I would like to know your opinion on the bear market and the next targets for BTC, since there are several projections regarding the price, in a range rather. [...] I plan to accumulate from that moment on, that is my strategy Insha'Allah."
This excellent question from Mohamed, a member of our community, is at the heart of the concerns of every smart crypto investor. While the markets are uncertain, the greatest fortunes are built not in the euphoria of bull runs, but in the calm and strategy of bear markets.
This article will provide you with a complete analysis and concrete strategies to navigate the current and future bear market, accumulate intelligently, and position yourself for the next bull cycle.
Disclaimer: This article is not financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile and risky. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
1. Understanding Bitcoin Cycles
Bitcoin evolves in 4-year cycles, punctuated by the halving (the halving of the miners' reward). A typical cycle unfolds as follows:
- Bull Run: Parabolic rise (euphoria).
- ATH (All-Time High): Historical peak.
- Bear Market: Prolonged decline of 70-85% from the ATH, lasting 12-18 months.
- Accumulation: Consolidation phase of 18-24 months.
| Cycle | ATH | Drop | Bear Market Duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-2015 | $1,163 | -87% | 410 days |
| 2017-2018 | $19,783 | -84% | 365 days |
| 2021-2022 | $69,000 | -78% | 371 days |
Lesson: Bear markets are a normal and healthy part of the cycle. This is when patient investors buy from impatient investors.
2. Where Are We in January 2026?
The market is divided between two main scenarios:
Scenario 1: Continuation of the Bull Run
- The correction at the end of 2025 was healthy.
- The cycle is not over.
- Projections: $120,000 - $170,000 in 2026 [1] [2].
Scenario 2: Beginning of a Prolonged Bear Market
- The ATH is behind us.
- We are entering a major correction phase.
- Projections: $55,000 - $75,000 in 2026 [3].
Key Technical Levels to Watch
- Key Support: $74,000 - If this level breaks, the probability of a bear market increases sharply.
- Potential Accumulation Zone: $55,000 - $70,000 - A historically interesting area to accumulate.
- Major Resistance: $120,000 - The level to beat to confirm the continuation of the bull run.
3. Smart Accumulation Strategies
No one can predict the bottom with certainty. The best approach is therefore to have a systematic strategy.
Strategy 1: DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging)
The simplest and most effective strategy for 99% of investors.
Principle: Invest a fixed amount (€50, €100, etc.) at regular intervals (every week, every month), regardless of the price.
Advantages:
- ✅ Eliminates emotion: You are not trying to time the market.
- ✅ Smooths the entry price: You buy more BTC when the price is low, and less when it is high.
- ✅ Discipline: Forces you to invest regularly.
A study showed that a DCA of $10 per week from 2019 to 2024 would have generated a return of +202% [4].
Strategy 2: Hybrid DCA (Our Recommendation)
This strategy combines the discipline of DCA with the opportunism of "Buy the Dip".
Principle:
- Base DCA: Define a weekly or monthly DCA amount that you can maintain over the long term.
- Dry Powder Reserve: Set aside a sum (10-30% of your capital) for major corrections.
- Dynamic DCA: Increase your DCA when the price drops.
Concrete Example:
| BTC Price | Action |
|---|---|
| > $100,000 | Base DCA (€50/week) |
| $80,000 - $100,000 | DCA x1.5 (€75/week) |
| $60,000 - $80,000 | DCA x2 (€100/week) + Start using the reserve |
| < $60,000 | DCA x3 (€150/week) + Aggressive use of the reserve |
Advantages:
- ✅ You are always in the market thanks to the base DCA.
- ✅ You take massive advantage of dips to lower your average price.
- ✅ Psychologically easier than waiting for a bottom that never comes.
Strategy 3: The Halal Approach
For investors concerned with Islamic ethics, the strategy must avoid excessive speculation (gharar) and gambling (maysir).
- ✅ Intention: Long-term investment, not quick gains.
- ✅ Method: DCA or Hybrid DCA. Avoid leverage and futures.
- ✅ Holding: Self-custody on Sahal Wallet for real ownership.
- ✅ Patience: Aim for a 4+ year horizon (next cycle).
4. The Psychology of the Bear Market
The investor's greatest enemy is himself. In a bear market, your emotions will tell you to sell. Your strategy should tell you to buy.
Golden Rules for Survival:
- Think in cycles: Don't look at the price every day. Look at the 4-year cycles.
- Have a written strategy: Like the Hybrid DCA above. Follow it to the letter.
- Self-Custody: Secure your BTC on your Sahal Wallet. This will prevent you from selling on a whim.
- Keep learning: Take advantage of the bear market to educate yourself about the technology.
Conclusion: The Answer to Mohamed
Dear Mohamed, no one has a crystal ball. However, a smart accumulation strategy does not need to predict the future.
Our recommendation:
- Adopt a Hybrid DCA strategy.
- Start accumulating now with your base DCA.
- Keep a reserve for the price zones between $55,000 and $75,000, which represent historical buying opportunities if the market returns there.
- Be patient. Accumulation is a marathon, not a sprint.
- Secure everything on your Sahal Wallet.
By following this approach, you will no longer worry about whether the bottom is at $70,000 or $60,000. You will know that, in the long run, you have bought at an excellent price.
The bear market is a gift to those who know how to see it. It is the time to build the foundations of your future wealth.